Züblin Immobilien (ZUBN) – A play on ECB QE for 2015-2016

Züblin Immoblien has a large part of its property portfolio in France, Holland and Germany (next to Switzerland).

As the company has announced it wants to sell the commercial properties in France, which are in somewhat of a slump, it can be expected that ECB QE will lead to more liquidity and therefor a higher probability of being able to sell the properties.

As it’s currently not clear where the NAV of Züblin stands (last publicly available data was around 1.70-1.80 in October 2014), but the portfolio was valued then, and since further pressure on prices in France should have subdued, it could be an interesting play – at these depressed levels around CHF 1.10 – to bounce, to move back to its NAV.

Last data available from INSEE show that the property market in January ’15 was already on the mend. The last news in 2014 regarding the commercial office rental market around Paris had been negative.

There’s also a trend of property developers to buy unused commercial rent properies and turn them into appartements or hotels. This has been rising according to this report by keops.fr (page 7). Also the same report shows that asset mangers and funds have been becoming more active with purchases.

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March 24th Update:

„ECB President Mario Draghi says he’s already seen the benefits from the QE program, with borrowing costs for businesses and households coming down and new investment projects becoming more attractive. Purchasing managers index for the eurozone for March out on Tuesday also confirmed that the dark clouds are evaporating from the region.“ source marketwatch.com

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