Today I participated in a presentation at the Bellevue, Berne (a beautiful venue) organsied by the first class Swiss Private Bank Lombard Odier. I won’t go into the actual outlook they gave but more into what participants views were.
During one of the presentations participants (mostly HNWI, company or state & diplomatic representatives) were given the possibility to vote on different questions (with a credit card sized device each participant found on their seat).
One of the votes was regarding the outlook for QE ending 2014. Of the roughly 80 participants a total of 77% didn’t believe the central banks will be able to end QE this year. 43% do however believe that the US will end QE (ECB and BOJ continuing), while 34% believe that the US will continue with a QE4. Only 23% believe worldwide QE will end 2014.
Another vote was regarding what rate of world economic growth we’ll see 2014. Only 4% believe we’ll see a average historic growth rate (’normal‘ growth) this year. On the topic of will there be a slowdown leading to recession 14% voted yes. The vast majority (82%) believe economic growth will be positive, but below the historic rates.
The last question was regarding the SNB policy and more specifically the EURCHF FX rate. 72% believe that 2014 will see that rate hovering around 1.23 in a year. 9% believe in a rate of 1.35-1.40, 12% in a new and higher 1.30 SNB implemented level while 7% believe the EURCHF will tend back towards 1.00.
The senior strategists‘ presentation was made very interesting by this direct fast response tool that shows the voting results in a slide of the presentation being held. First class bank, as I said.